Tariff concerns and traders' multiple views regarding the tariff continue to dominate cotton price direction, both up and down.  Meanwhile, world supply demand fundamentals appear to provide a firm price bracket for price movement.  The three plus cent trading range from 76 cents to 79.50 cents stills keeps prices restrained within that narrow range.  The world crop is slowly being down sized, but tariff related restrictions on demand have a firm chokehold on cotton&rsquo...

Cotton prices caught a break this week from what many called a neutral world supply demand report. The declining volume of world cotton stocks was the highlight of USDA’s October report and rode the wave nearly 200 points higher as it pressured the 79 cent level before settling the week at 78.37. Adding to bullishness of lower global stocks was the likely damage caused by Hurricane Michael’s destruction in southeast Alabama and some catastrophic destruction in big cotton plantings in...

There is a crisis in the Cotton Belt.  There is a crisis in the Heartland.  Agriculture is leading the charge to disaster.  Every morning begins with the chimes of two thoughts: I am wrong [about] trade and consequently I am wrong [about] the market.  We had considerable success earlier in the year and fixed the bulk of the crop between 80 and 94 cents, basis December.  Yet, I also felt that the December futures would rally and challenge 80 cents and above.  Too, I ...

The company is replacing all of the equipment at its mills starting from the fourth quarter of 2018. “We are not simply replacing a few parts, we are replacing the most of the machines,” said Mr. Tung. “The new machines will use less energy, less water, less chemicals and there will be less air pollution so it will be very good for the environment,” he added.

Where is Billy Dunavant when we need him?  Cotton prices have taken nearly a ten cent nose dive, a 1000 points, in the past three months.  In the face of this, world ending stocks have decreased and world consumption has increased.  Too, expect stocks to further decline.  Yet, U.S. export sales have stumbled and record forward sales are history as new sales appear to be dying on the vine.  We can trace it back to the tariff.  Worse still it appears that December cou...

Tariff nervousness plagued the cotton market all week as December futures momentarily broke below long time support at 79 cents.  However, going into the weekly close, the market was trying to hold the price support line.  Prices are hovering around that level so all is not lost just yet.  I was one of those suggesting that the market would not suffer from the tariff as world cotton trade needs the U.S. crop that otherwise would have gone to China.  I was wrong.   F...

Cotton has become the contra-nowhere market...where she goes no one knows.  Yet, rest assured, the market is right.  It the market soothsayers like myself that are wrong.  The very narrow four cent trading range, 81-84 cents, basis December futures, remains in place.   It is teetering as if to be Humpty Dumpty.  The downside bias also remains in place.  The September supply demand report did little to spook the market lower, albeit was slightly bearish. &n...

Whipsaw price swings continue to haunt the cotton market.  Such price swings, characterized by triple digit day to day trading, will continue until the U.S. and world crop sizes are better defined.  Despite concerns surrounding the West Texas crop it is difficult to go against the USDA objective yield survey.  Until they change their estimate of crop size it is questionable to challenge the USDA-NASS survey results.  As we have mentioned in prior weeks, one should accept the ...

Cotton added another muggy week to its trading linage, easily trading 100 points higher and then 100 points lower. As it cannot generate any clear direction.   Thus, the whipsaw price action continued and only the day traders seemed to care. The market is in search of new fundamental information with talk of crop size—some saw lower while others say higher, but with no one willing to stick their neck out with a firm commitment.  Too, the demand word has snuck back into the p...

It’s not pretty. The cotton market has degenerated to whip saw activity, triple digits up and then triple digits down, but with an ever so slight downward bias as it sits near a major price support point. The 81 cent support level is close to being challenged as speculators are reluctant to increase their long positions.  Additionally, there is a slight tendency of speculators to ease out of their long cotton positions, even as fundamentals favor a move back into the high 80’s.&...