The Thrill is Gone, The Thrill is Gone, so sang BB King.  From an exciting six months with promises of greatness, the cotton market is now hanging on with all the force it can muster.   The market provided growers a clear opportunity to price the 2018 crop between 88 and 94 cents multiple times and even climbed to a high near 95 cents.  Yet, the thrill is gone.  The opportunity to price in the upper five percent of the price range has been replaced with the opportunity t...

Hold on. Wait a minute.  The expected bullish supply demand report had bear tracks all over it.  New crop was bigger than expected, old crop exports failed to materialize, and U.S. carryover was increased.  The bulls could point only to 1.) increased U.S. exports, 2.) smaller world ending carryover and that 3.) world consumption forecast at a record level.  In response to the report the market sank as prices fell some 200 points to near 85 cents.  However, demand remains...

Wow, it is already August and time for the market’s lazy lethargically dog days of trading.  Yet, with 90 cents on the horizon that is the furthest thing from trader’s minds.  Let’s hurry up and get to the August USDA crop report so the market can find its breakout above the 90 cents trading cap.  At least that is what traders are hoping for.   Price volatility has become common place in the cotton market as prices continue to swerve through triple...

Cotton trading continues mixed, but all contracts settled higher he end of the first quarter of the year.  Earlier the nearby May and July contracts slipped below 81 cents, but finished the week challenging the 82 cent mark.  The new crop December contract clawed its way back to just below 78 cents and the week’s fundamental news purports to push the December futures contact above 78 cents, the price level we had advised to growers to begin their pricing. USDA’s annual pros...

The prior week we discussed the second chances the market typically provides growers.  This year was no different as this week’s trading action provided those that missed out on the 90’s a shot at the mid 80’s. Take advantage of it this time.  Granted, Mother Nature make take even more off the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas crop.A box plum full of corrections and adjustments was USDA’s gift to the cotton market this week.  The market had flirted with breaking b...

They finally did it.  The Chinese enacted the most bullish scenario possible for cotton, save that of mandating every person in the country buy a new cotton shirt.  Too, for all the serious intellect and market savvy they possess, they have no idea what they did.  After much historic discussion and arm twisting the free world allowed China to join to the WTO and enjoy all the free trade rights and privileges of the somewhat tariff free world economy.  China’s only ...

After some two months of moving to the upside cotton prices are now on the defense while attempting to hold the important 83-84 cent major support level. The next major support level would be 79 cents.  After suffering a ten cent loss as speculative funds took profits and exited the market, fundamentals are now back in the picture.  Yet, the tariff nervousness was a drag on the market, but no more so than the recent rains in Texas.  It was not important exactly where and how much ...

The musical world told the story of cotton trading this week…low low prices and no high prices:  The lyric “It’s all about the bass, no treble” told the full story.   There was nary a high note to be heard, just all low and lower notes came out of the mouth of traders.   Trading took the market down a thin dime, a 1000 points; now we can look for some recovery and hope for a little treble.Prices sensed troubles at the prior week’s close as ...

After challenging contract price highs during the week, a combination of overbought conditions, coupled with more showers across Texas and the Southwest, trumped the market’s push to higher ground and forced all contracts except July and October below the 90 cent level. Nevertheless, the price uptrend remains in place.  However, the market is inspecting the lower end of the price range as opposed to the upper end and is working the 88 to 95 cent trading range.  Thus, the bottom e...

The juice continued to flow into the cotton market as new contract highs and new high closes were made during the week.  Too, it was very satisfying to the bulls as the week ended with the market holding its strength.    Most are beginning to realize that world stocks are not at the levels presumed, as well as the fact that U.S. ending stocks will be much lower, likely some 800,000 to 1.1 million bales lower than USDA estimated.  U.S. export sales have slowed as the 90 c...